Elections at a Crossroads: Leveraging Data-Driven Programming for Peaceful Transitions

Elections can serve as moments of democratic renewal for society; yet at the same time, they often exacerbate social tensions, increase polarization, and spur on violence. How can policymakers predict what the effects of an election will be? And how can they use evidence to ensure elections can become a source of progress rather than a trigger of violence? 

This session answers these questions by illustrating how data-driven methodologies aimed at measuring attitudes towards violence during elections can be translated into targeted policy action. Drawing from the Kofi Annan Foundation’s Electoral Integrity Initiative and Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI), SeeD’s Political and Electoral Stability Barometer in Côte d’Ivoire (BaSE-CI), and Volt’s on-the-ground political expertise, this session emphasizes how evidence can help move beyond risk identification to inform realistic political action and support stakeholders as they navigate electoral competition while seeking to prevent violence.

 Through this scenario-based workshop, participants will gain practical experience working with EVI and BaSE-CI, while reflecting on how such methodologies interact with political realities. In this way, participants will explore how risk analysis can inform timely action by institutions, civil society, and peacebuilders aimed at supporting credible, legitimate, and peaceful elections. This, in turn, helps actors to “choose peace” by strengthening initiatives aimed at conflict prevention, inclusive governance, and electoral integrity.