How Should Mediation Adapt to an Increasingly Transactional World?

Emerging geopolitical realities are reshaping not only the nature of armed conflict but also the logic and practice of mediation. In a context marked by multipolar competition, shifting alliances, and transactional diplomacy, peace processes increasingly unfold as a series of iterative bargains rather than broad political settlements, involving multiple actors pursuing parallel and sometimes competing diplomatic initiatives.

Adaptations to these realities are necessary, and some are already under way. Particular attention is warranted regarding the transactional dimension of mediation, as ceasefires, humanitarian arrangements, economic incentives, sanctions relief, reconstruction funding, and security guarantees have become interconnected bargaining tools within broader geopolitical negotiations. Power may create leverage, but it does not replace the need for sound process design. Even in a more transactional environment, mediators still need to structure engagement, sequence issues, manage participation, build confidence, and create pathways from immediate bargains towards more durable forms of restraint, cooperation and political settlement. 

The session will explore how mediation practice is adapting to a changing geopolitical landscape and, in particular, how process design can help connect transactional bargains to longer-term political objectives. What needs to change in the mediator’s toolkit, and what remains fundamental, in an era shaped by strategic competition and transactional diplomacy?